Safety level of damaged RoPax ships : risk modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis

摘要

This paper elaborates on results of a recent risk analysis study for RoPax vessels, carried out as part of the activities of the SAFEDOR Integrated Project, targeting possible improvements on safety levels following large scale flooding. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of accident statistics for the period 1994-2004, through which a high-level risk model (in the form of event trees) is established. This is then used to determine the current safety level of RoPax vessels (in various risk metrics, such as individual risk, potential loss of life and on an F-N curve), reconfirming that even though safety levels are improving, risk is still 'high in the ALARP region'. In search of ways to further improve the situation possible risk control options are examined, by performing a sensitivity analysis on the effects of the Attained Index of Subdivision A onto the safety levels and by evaluating their cost-effectiveness.